= Сообщение: 3914 из 12549 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : David Rance 2:203/2 25 Jun 16 00:54:15 Кому : Michiel van der Vlist 25 Jun 16 00:54:15 Тема : Brexit FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+576dba12 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+576d65e6 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP866 ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+576fcf77 ============================================================================== On Fri, 24 Jun 2016 18:55:00 Michiel van der Vlist -> David Rance wrote:
MvdV> I predict that when the people of what will be left of the UK realise MvdV> that by following Farrage, they did NOT get a better deal, and that MvdV> Farrage can not realise his promises, they will drop him like a hot MvdV> patato. And that will be tyhe end of his political carreer. I say this MvdV> will happen in the next five years.
I think you miss the point. Farrage did not lead this Brexit campaign (though he would like people to think that he did). What he did was this (and I've written about this here in years past though not, perhaps, all in one piece):
Farrage has, for many, many years, been exploiting the dissatisfaction which some Brits have with the EU. Or rather, he blames the EU for all the ills of this country. He founded his UKIP party (United Kingdom Independence Party) so that those who wanted to leave the EU would have a party to which they could migrate. Gradually this has grown, taking members mainly from the Conservatives but also the other main parties (Labour and Liberal Democrats) and putting up candidates in the general and EU elections. People who wanted out voted UKIP, even though it had only this one policy: to leave the EU, and we saw a gradual haemorrhaging from the main parties to UKIP and they began to get seats at Westminster and Brussels. This was embarrassing for the main parties and so they had to do something about it and David Cameron was the first prime minister to tackle this head on. In order to placate his own party, he had to put into his manifesto that there would be an IN/OUT referendum during the lifetime of this parliament. He had to allow those who wanted out to speak their mind, even if they were government ministers.
Farrage was merely the catalyst. He would never have been able to call for a referendum himself, and he wasn't even part of the official Brexit campaign as he ran his own and caused a lot of upset with his sometimes fascist views. But over ten years he has played a subtle, waiting game. We can't "drop him like a hot potato" as you put it because he has, in effect, let the genie out of the bottle. We can't drop him because only a small minority of people follow him. He is no more than an irritant, but a dangerous one.
David Cameron gambled on the Great British Public being sensible enough to reject these calls to leave. I personally believe that a large majority of the Great British Public doesn't really want to leave in spite of the outcome of yesterday's vote. But the minds of the non-thinkers were trained by the leave campaign on immediate problems (as I've already said, immigration, the economy and being able to fix our own laws) and, in the usual style of politicians, concentrated on current grievances and gave false impressions of what would be possible if we didn't have to follow everything that was decided in Brussels.
We are going to regret today. Already people are getting worried and beginning to feel that they voted the wrong way now that the hyperbole of campaigning has finished. As I said before, we are in shock. We never thought it would go this way.
But other EU countries have got their Nigel Farrages. Don't underestimate them. You may think that Geert Wilders is an idiot. We thought that Nigel Farrage was an idiot. You may think that Wilders is a lone voice. But just wait until he latches on to things which worry the Dutch public.
MvdV> David Cameron made a tactical error by bashing the EU for years, MvdV> promising his constituency that he could get a better deal. And then MvdV> all of a sudden when the day of the rerendum nears, he makes a U-turn MvdV> and campaigns for remain. That had no credibility. He overplayed his hand.
I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make any kind of sense.
David
-- Formerly ICHTHUS (Reading) UK (1987-2007 R.I.P.) (2:292/854.110)
