MvdV> On Sunday June 26 2016 16:52, you wrote to me:
DR>>>>> No, you are completely wrong. Nothing has happened yet
AV>>>> Really? :-)
MvdV>>> David seems to think that because /officially/ nothing happened MvdV>>> yet, the UK and the EU can just kiss and make up and pretend MvdV>>> nothing happened.
DR>> I'm sorry, Michiel, but if you are going to continually misquote what DR>> I write in the manner of the tabloid press then I shall bow out of DR>> this discussion. I haven't got the time to waste. :-(
MvdV> Technically I was not quoting from your message, but from Alexey's MvdV> response to it.
MvdV> Sorry if I misunderstood, but from your writings I got the impression MvdV> that you really thought that ignoring the referendum and resuming as if MvdV> nothing happened was a realistic option. Sorry if I misunderstood.
No, I wasn't voicing personal feelings. I was just trying to explain that nothing yet happens automatically. The ball is in the UK's court at the moment. Juncker may say that he wants us to get on with it, and who can blame him because the political instability will exist on both sides. Nevertheless the UK has landed itself in a situation that it didn't expect or want, so we have to take time to think what to do next.
But a pause has been enforced because of Cameron's resignation. Candidates for his job have until Thursday to declare themselves. Then they have to have the election by the Conservative MPs. Nobody much seems to want Boris to get the job and (at the time of writing) only two other candidates are in the offing. But when elected, he or she will not take office until the beginning of September. That's the earliest that we can invoke Article 50 after it has been agreed in parliament. But once it has, we have two years to negotiate our way out of the EU. And if we haven't got the terms we want then, tough, we shall be booted out without them!
But another fly in our ointment is the fact that a motion of no confidence in the Leader of the Opposition (and leader of the Labour Party) is being voted on by the Labour MPs). Jeremy Corbyn has said that even if he loses, he won't quit because he was elected, not by the MPs, but by Labour membership across the country. Although this won't have a direct effect on invoking Article 50, nevertheless it leads to more political uncertainty for the UK.
Anyway, we shall expect a general election soon after the new prime minister is appointed as he (or she) will need to get a mandate from the country. And if the Labour Party haven't sorted themselves out by then the Conservatives will get in by default.
Unless, God forbid, UKIP gets in or, at least, becomes the official Opposition.
You see, we're just in a mess! And such a mess I've never seen before. You can understand why I'm so depressed.
David -- David Rance writing from Caversham, Reading, UK
