= Сообщение: 3971 из 12549 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : David Rance 2:203/2 29 Jun 16 10:59:17 Кому : Michiel van der Vlist 29 Jun 16 10:59:17 Тема : Brexit FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+57738dde На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5772fbda = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP866 ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+57742117 ============================================================================== On Tue, 28 Jun 2016 23:56:18 Michiel van der Vlist -> David Rance wrote:
MvdV> On Tuesday June 28 2016 16:49, you wrote to me:
DR>> No, I wasn't voicing personal feelings. I was just trying to explain DR>> that nothing yet happens automatically. The ball is in the UK's court DR>> at the moment. Juncker may say that he wants us to get on with it, and DR>> who can blame him because the political instability will exist on both DR>> sides.
MvdV> It seems that the UK will be given some time to get it's act together.
DR>> Nevertheless the UK has landed itself in a situation that it DR>> didn't expect or want,
MvdV> That depends on who you ask of course. Those who voted "leave" seem to MvdV> have gotten what they wanted.
Yes, but not those who actually run (!) the country.
DR>> so we have to take time to think what to do next.
MvdV> Which makes me wonder why there was no plan B. Even if the outcome was MvdV> not expected, shouldn't there have been a plan B?
Of course there should. But that's the way the UK continually muddles on.
DR>> But a pause has been enforced because of Cameron's resignation. DR>> Candidates for his job have until Thursday to declare themselves. Then DR>> they have to have the election by the Conservative MPs. Nobody much DR>> seems to want Boris to get the job and (at the time of writing) only DR>> two other candidates are in the offing. But when elected, he or she DR>> will not take office until the beginning of September.
MvdV> Why the delay? If it is known who it will be, why can't he/she take MvdV> office right away?
Because they have to be elected by the Conservative party and elections take time to organise. The closing date for candidates to apply is tomorrow and, at the moment, it looks as though there will be eight candidates. The front runners are Boris Johnson and Theresa May. May has been our Home Secretary (Minister of the Interior) for the last six years. General feeling is that Boris will get it but the bookies are putting their money on Theresa May. But, of course, anything can happen. Look at when Harold ("You've never had it so good") MacMillan and Edward Heath got in. Neither were expected.
DR>> That's the earliest that we can invoke Article 50 after it has been DR>> agreed in parliament.
MvdV> Why? I mean why can't parliament decide on it tomorrow?
Because a lame-duck prime minister cannot now invoke it.
DR>> But once it has, we have two years to negotiate our way out of the EU. DR>> And if we haven't got the terms we want then, tough, we shall be DR>> booted out without them!
MvdV> Which I consider a serious possibility. Boris Johnson seems to want MvdV> access to the European economic space, but without the "rules from MvdV> Brussels". To me that sounds like having the rights but not the duties. MvdV> Of course that will never be accepted by the EU.
He's calmed down quite a bit since last Thursday and is now admitting that it's not possible to get what he wanted, especially with regard to free movement of people. Pity he didn't do so earlier!
MvdV> I think the best deal that the UK can hope for is the deal that was MvdV> made by Norway and Switzerland. Anything beyond and above that will not MvdV> be accepted by the EU.
Now there I'm inclined to agree with you.
MvdV> But the deal with Norway and Switzerland implies accepting free traffic MvdV> of persons, goods and capital. And it implies that they should pay MvdV> contribution. That means the UK can not close its borders for EU MvdV> immigrants and they will still be a net contributor. Both of which they MvdV> do not want. So I do not see how that is going to work.
As I said above, Boris is now admitting that it won't.
DR>> Unless, God forbid, UKIP gets in or, at least, becomes the official DR>> Opposition.
MvdV> UKIP is a one issue party. They got what they want. At least if the MvdV> brexit actually materialises. Then they can disbound themselves, their MvdV> job is done. So the best way to make UKIP irrelevant is to get moving MvdV> with brexit.
They won't disband. Farage enjoys the limelight too much. They will probably now try to become the official opposition party.
DR>> You see, we're just in a mess! And such a mess I've never seen before. DR>> You can understand why I'm so depressed.
MvdV> Perhaps the UK should never have been in the EU to begin with.
Again I'm inclined to agree with you. De Gaulle (wisely) kept us out for a long time, and, when it came to joining in the '70s, I was against it for, as I've said before, the wrong reasons.
MvdV> But we have no time machines and we can not undo the mistakes made in MvdV> the past. We shall just have to live with them. I don't have all the MvdV> answeres either.
It was said by someone that those who ignore the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them. I'm sure someone here will be able to say who that was.
David
-- David Rance writing from Caversham, Reading, UK
