MV> When Nordrhein-Westfalen exits from the Budesrepubliek Deutschland..
I would rather say when Holland leaves the Netherlands. More realistic, don't you thinik?
RB>> The problem with the BREXIT is not only that it cases a shadow on the RB>> EU as a viable community and may encourage others to follow, but that RB>> the UK is - I seem to have read - the third largest economy in the RB>> EU, and will be missed - if for nothing else - for financial reasons.
MV> Yes, it will be missed. For a while. And then we will move on. The EU MV> will survive without the UK and I do not believe it will encourage MV> others to follow. They will think twice before they give up the MV> benefits of membership.
Depends on whether they're net payers or net recipients. In the latter case, there would be more hesitation.
RB>> That means, presumably, that countries like Germany and the RB>> Netherlands will have to pay more into the EU pot if the organization RB>> is to continue as it has been over the past years.
MV> Yes we will have to pay more. We will survive and in the long run the MV> EU may be better off without having to drag the UK along by their MV> feet.
Oh? Then try to drag the Poles by their feet in their current crisis. And do the same for the Hungarians. Force the Danes to adhere to all EU directives. Foce the Swedes to adopt the Euro or get out. And a few other things. You see only the rosebeds, but ignore the thorns.
RB>> We already had enough crises - just think of the Greeks and the RB>> migrant crisis,
MV> We survived.
Did we? And just how do you figure that? The problems still exist, and can come to a boil again at any time.
RB>> with the involvement of Turkey, a country that may well become a RB>> personal dictatorship after April 16th.
MV> A distinct possibility and if that happens. I hope it will give the MV> leaders of Europe enough balls to tell Turkey in no uncertain terms MV> that EU membership for Turkey is off the agenda. For now, for next MV> year, for the next ten years, for the next 50 years.
Depends on how long Erdogan lives. But it seems to me that Austria is the only EU member taking such a hard stance. The rest seem to be muddling through.
RB>> The interest rates are already at 0%, which is hurting a lot of RB>> people, not the least you and me - whereas our German inflation rates RB>> are already above the 2% leven formerly considered "normal". That RB>> spells a housing "bubble" in Germany that is already causing RB>> disruptions and can break at any time, giving Germany the prospect of RB>> a growth and employment problem.
MV> All serious problems, but "remain" would not have solved them.
No, but the cohesion - and money, and market - provided by the UK might have helped.
RB>> And Germany, like it or not, is presently the country with the major RB>> influence in the EU.
MV> Germany was already that before the Brexit and "remain" would not have MV> changed that.
Maybe not, but at least there would have been some kind of "checks and balances" by a major country. That's always an advantage when one member of a group gets too strong.
RB>> I would have preferred that the UK stick it out - AND - remain the RB>> "naysayer".
MV> About a year ago, when it was decided there would be a referendum, I MV> already wrote "if they want to go, let them go". The UK had never been MV> a loyal member of the club. Always wanting the benefits but not the MV> liabilities. So, now that they HAVE decided they will go, I say again: MV> "let them go". I see a future for the EU without the UK. Now we can MV> move on.
To what? This attitude of revenge is certainly not going to get us anywhere desirable. Keep that up, and you'll have to push Denmark and Sweden to give up their special privileges - and start playing hardball with Poland and Hungary to force them into the EU line. A kindly, peaceful separation, like an uncontested divorce, is always better than a knock-down, drag-out fight that poisons all future dealings. Just keep up the hard feelings regarding the UK, and force them even closer to the USA than they already are. Is that really an advantage for the EU?
RB>> What we have to look forward to is certainly not pleasant, but I hope RB>> it won't be as bad as some people fear.
MV> It will be bad for the people of the UK, I do not envy them. But for MV> the EU, I am optimistic. I see problems, but I also see opportunities.
