= Сообщение: 4265 из 12550 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 18 Sep 16 15:54:58 Кому : Gerrit Kuehn 18 Sep 16 15:54:58 Тема : Brexit FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+57dea000 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:240/12+57dd831f = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== ============================================================================== Hello Gerrit,
On Saturday September 17 2016 19:02, you wrote to me:
MvdV>> However ... the UK has always complained that they are a net MvdV>> contributor to the EU. So when they stop contributing, they MvdV>> should have enough money to do their own funding. Shouldn't MvdV>> they?
GK> I'm pretty sure no-one ever came up with concrete, verifiable numbers GK> on that.
If you just add the membership fees and substract the grants, they are a net contributor. OF course they are!. All the rich counries are.
GK> In many cases these things are entwined and rather complicated to GK> follow.
Of course. The above calculation is just part of the story.
GK> There are not only funds that stop flowing, there are effects of GK> second and third order that are not so obvious.
Plus that there are effects of scale. The fact that the membership fee exceeds the returend grants, does not mean that they are better off without the EU.
Just an example.
The cost of border control is roughly proportional with the diameter of the area to control. The number of occupants is rougly proportional with the square of the area to control.
The cost of border control per capita is proportional to the inverse square root of the number of people to protect. It is cheaper to join forces and do things together.
Just an example
MvdV>> Airbus may also split up.
GK> Interesting example. I think Airbus has dedicated subsidiaries in UK. GK> These used to keep a fair return in ESA projects. Now, ESA as such is GK> separate from EU, so at first sight one might think ESA is not GK> affected by Brexit. But as I said above, these things tend to come GK> with higher-order effects... GK> <http://spacenews.com/britains-quitting-the-eu-but-will-it- GK> be-forced-out-of-eu -space-programs/>
Hard to say how that will work out, but I think there will be many second and third order effects of the Brexit that no one has even thought about yet.
GK> I'll not bet on anything before they not even officially applied for GK> leave and started negotiating. Looks like there are interesting times GK> ahead.
It will certainly be ineteresting, but I also think this will not be a "nice" divorce.
