The die is cast, the "Dear John letter" has been delivered and accepted. There is no way back. Brexit is a fact.
A sad day and not a nice birthday present for the 60 year old EU. This will not be good for anyone. Not for the UK and not for the EU. The referendum should never heve been held. Democracy is a great good, but the Brexit referendum shows that it should not be left to the people alone. No matter how it ended, there was no win-win outcome.
I say the Brexit is bad for all concerned, but it will be more damaging for the UK than for the EU. The economic impact on the UK will be tremendous. They will almost certainly loose the free access to the EU market. Even worse, Brexit may be the trigger for the desintegration of the UK itself. Scotland wants to remain in the EU and if a break away from the UK can acomplish that, they may go that way. Also there is the problem of Northern Ireland. No one on either side wants a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but it seems to be unavoidable as that border will be the outer border of the EU. It may bring back the "troubles" from the sixties and the seventees. Also.. Spain has never really accepted the annexation of Gibraltar a couple of hundred years ago. They want it back and they see a chance. One does not need a crystal ball to predict who's side the EU will be on when it comes to a conflict between the UK and Spain over Gibraltar. Spain is "one of us". "Eu members first"...
However, for the EU, Brexit may be the lesser of two evils. Suppose the die had dropped on the other side of the line and the outcome of the referendum had been "remain". A third of the population did not vote, so the remainers would have been a minority and the Tories were very much in favour of leave. So to passify them, and keep the party together, whoever would be prime minister of the UK would have to make absolutely no conscession at all towards the EU. None whatsoever. This would have held the EU in a stranglehold. Nothing could be done to make a move when changes in the world demanded it.
Add to that the UK would go for new demands and exceptions. The list is already too long. The UK wants no banking union, but they want a veto annyway. They do not want the EU ambassador to speak on their behalf, despite the fact that the treaty of Lissabon demands it. The frustration among EU diplomats about the endless demands for special deals and exceptions is high.
Under those circumstances, Brexit is better for all but especially for the EU. Now the EU can move on without the UK keeping their foot on the brakes.
