= Сообщение: 4741 из 12549 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 14 Apr 17 12:48:41 Кому : Robert Bashe 14 Apr 17 12:48:41 Тема : Brexit, It giet oan! FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+58f0b32d На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:2448/44+58e76c02 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:2448/44+58f33f30 ============================================================================== Hello Robert,
On Friday April 07 2017 12:20, you wrote to me: RB>>> So when does the "NLEXIT" come? ;-)
MV>> When Nordrhein-Westfalen exits from the Budesrepubliek MV>> Deutschland..
RB> I would rather say when Holland leaves the Netherlands. More RB> realistic, don't you thinik?
Holland (in the sense of the merger of Noord Holland and Zuid Holland) is a net contributor to The Netherlands. As is Nordrehein-Westfalen to the Bundesrepublik Deutschland. So according to your logic it would be just as realistic.
MV>> Yes, it will be missed. For a while. And then we will move on. The MV>> EU will survive without the UK and I do not believe it will MV>> encourage others to follow. They will think twice before they give MV>> up the benefits of membership.
RB> Depends on whether they're net payers or net recipients. In the latter RB> case, there would be more hesitation.
Here we go again with that "net contributors, net benificiaries" mantra.
Bob, there are no "net contributors". /Everyone is a net benficiary. Those who believe they are net contributor use the wrong method of calculation.
MV>> Yes we will have to pay more. We will survive and in the long run MV>> the EU may be better off without having to drag the UK along by MV>> their feet.
RB> Oh? Then try to drag the Poles by their feet in their current crisis. RB> And do the same for the Hungarians. Force the Danes to adhere to all RB> EU directives. Foce the Swedes to adopt the Euro or get out.
None of those is demanding a bettr deal and threatening to leave if they don't get their way.
RB> And a few other things. You see only the rosebeds, but ignore the RB> thorns.
You only see the thorns and even refuse to acknowledge that there are rosebuds.
RB>>> We already had enough crises - just think of the Greeks and the RB>>> migrant crisis,
MV>> We survived.
RB> Did we? And just how do you figure that? The problems still exist, and RB> can come to a boil again at any time.
Greece does not want to leave the EU and the problem is manageble.
MV>> A distinct possibility and if that happens. I hope it will give MV>> the leaders of Europe enough balls to tell Turkey in no uncertain MV>> terms that EU membership for Turkey is off the agenda. For now, MV>> for next year, for the next ten years, for the next 50 years.
RB> Depends on how long Erdogan lives.
He has to win that referendum first. He may loose and that may be the end of his political carreer. It may go either way. If he wins, Turkey may very wel turn into a full blown dictatorship ruled by Erdogan until he dies. Nobody knows what happens after that. Meybe his son will be the next dictator of Turkey.
RB> But it seems to me that Austria is the only EU member taking such a RB> hard stance. The rest seem to be muddling through.
Only a couple of weeks ago our government expelled a Turkish minister who tried to meddle into our affaires.
RB>>> The interest rates are already at 0%, which is hurting a lot of RB>>> people, not the least you and me - whereas our German inflation RB>>> rates are already above the 2% leven formerly considered RB>>> "normal". That spells a housing "bubble" in Germany that is RB>>> already causing disruptions and can break at any time, giving RB>>> Germany the prospect of a growth and employment problem.
MV>> All serious problems, but "remain" would not have solved them.
RB> No, but the cohesion - and money, and market - provided by the UK RB> might have helped.
If they had stayed, they would have continued to demand ever more special treatment and "better deals". That would NOT have helped.
RB>>> And Germany, like it or not, is presently the country with the RB>>> major influence in the EU.
MV>> Germany was already that before the Brexit and "remain" would not MV>> have changed that.
RB> Maybe not, but at least there would have been some kind of "checks and RB> balances" by a major country. That's always an advantage when one RB> member of a group gets too strong.
Checks and balances my foot. The UK has always been the spouse with a seven year headache.
MV>> About a year ago, when it was decided there would be a referendum, MV>> I already wrote "if they want to go, let them go". The UK had MV>> never been a loyal member of the club. Always wanting the benefits MV>> but not the liabilities. So, now that they HAVE decided they will MV>> go, I say again: "let them go". I see a future for the EU without MV>> the UK. Now we can move on.
RB> To what?
To a better Europe. When the bad guys can cross the borders just like that, we need police that can also cross the borders just like that to chase them. Closing borders is no longer an option. We can't stop ever truck at the border for inspection as we did 50 years ago. The would also set back our economy by 50 years. So we need a police that can chase the criminals across borders. Something like the FBI in the US. The UK has always blocked that. Now ee can go ahaed.
RB> This attitude of revenge is certainly not going to get us RB> anywhere desirable.
It is not revenge. It is looking after our own interest. The UK does not want to be a member of the club, so the rest of the members will look after what is best for them. It is not in the interest of the remaining 27 members to let the UK have the benefits of membership but not let them pay the contribution.
RB> Keep that up, and you'll have to push Denmark and Sweden to give up RB> their special privileges - and start playing hardball with Poland and RB> Hungary to force them into the EU line.
None of them is threatening to leave...
RB> A kindly, peaceful separation, like an uncontested divorce,
There is no such thing as an uncontested divorce.
RB> is always better than a knock-down, drag-out fight that poisons all RB> future dealings.
The situation is already poisoned. It can't get much worse.
RB> Just keep up the hard feelings regarding the UK, and force them even RB> closer to the USA than they already are. Is that really an advantage RB> for the EU?
It may be the lesser of two evils.
RB>>> What we have to look forward to is certainly not pleasant, but I RB>>> hope it won't be as bad as some people fear.
MV>> It will be bad for the people of the UK, I do not envy them. But MV>> for the EU, I am optimistic. I see problems, but I also see MV>> opportunities.
RB> Good for you. And they are?...
I already mentioned an EU equivalent of the FBI.
Presently London is the financial centre of Europe. That probably will change. Many institutions prepare to leave London because based in London they will be cut off from the EU market. Good looking places are Dublin, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Antwerp. Ireland, Germany, The Netherlands and Belgium will benefit from that.
Also we can stop making cars that can easely be converted for driving on the left side of the road. ;-)
