= Сообщение: 4879 из 12549 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 03 May 17 15:25:02 Кому : Robert Bashe 03 May 17 15:25:02 Тема : Brexit, It giet oan! FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5909ded4 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:2448/44+58f714d6 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== ============================================================================== Hello Robert,
On Wednesday April 19 2017 09:06, you wrote to me:
MV>>>> A divorce opens up old wounds. That is unavoidable. I already MV>>>> mentioned Gibraltar.
RB>>> Ancient history. Can you imagine Spain trying to invade RB>>> Gibralter? I can't.
MV>> Who knows. What is the UK going to do? Nuke Madrid?
RB> No need to. Just send a few destroyers to Gibralter to prevent Spanish RB> fishermen from fishing in its territorial waters. That would be RB> enough.
Ah, the old "right of might". You forget hat "right of might" only works for the strongest. That is how the UK go Gobraltar in the first place. But no one remains the strongest forever. It may turn out that in "the UK against the rest of 27" the UK turns out to be not the strongest.
MV>> A military invasion is not likely. But I can see scenarios where MV>> Gibraltar becomes part of the Brexit negotations. If there were MV>> some "encouregments" like Spain closing the border, it may not be MV>> all that unattractive for the UK to let go of Gibraltar.
RB> Spain has closed the border more than once, but opened it again when RB> it turned out that Spain was hurting more than the UK.
The situation has changed. After Brexit, the border between Spain and Gibraltar will be en EU outer border. That is not only against the interest of Spain, it is against the interest of all the other EU countries. Plus... that the people of Gibraltar may not want to be on the wrong side of the EU border either. Remember, they were against Brexit.
Like it or not, one way or another Gibraltar will be part of the Brexit negotiations. And so will Ulster. All options are still open. A hard EU border between the UK and the republic of Ireland is not in the interest of Ireland and not in the interest of the people of Ulster. Northern Ireland ccould remain in the EU (that is what they want) if they decide to leave the UK and unite with the Republic of Ireland.
MV>> Maybe Spain is willing to trade if for Ceuta...
RB> Nice joke. Spain would probably like to get rid of Ceuta even as a RB> gift, but nobody would be stupid enough to take it.
It was half a joke of course, but not quit. At the end of the day Gibraltar may turn out to no longer be an asset, but a liability that the UK would also gladly get rid of, but that no one whats to have...
