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Присутствуют сообщения из эхоконференции ENET.SYSOP с датами от 10 Jul 13 21:42:12 до 13 Sep 24 12:11:54, всего сообщений: 12549
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= Сообщение: 4994 из 12549 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP =
От   : Michiel van der Vlist            2:280/5555         12 Jun 17 13:44:12
Кому : David Rance                                         12 Jun 17 13:44:12
Тема : The future of Mrs May.
FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+593e8636
На   : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+593e5db0
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Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+593eabf8
Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:2448/44+593f965e
==============================================================================
Hello David,

On Monday June 12 2017 11:24, you wrote to me:

MvdV>>>> I expect Theresa May will announce her resignation as PM
MvdV>>>> before the end of the month.

DR>>> You could be right. It wouldn't surprise me.

MvdV>> Frankly, I do not understand why she didn't resign right after
MvdV>> the election.

DR> I don't understand you. You are not consistent. When David Cameron
DR> resigned after the Brexit referendum you said that he should have
DR> stayed on to execute the Will of the People. So why don't you say the
DR> same for Theresa May?

There is no inconsistency. What I think should happen and what I expect what will actually happen are two different things. Before the referendum David Cameron said he would stay on and follow the will of of the people when Brexit would be the outcome of the referendum. And so that is what he should have done. But I was not at all suprised when he did not follow up on that and resigned anyway. It was to be expected.

Regarding the "should" of Theresa May, she should never hever been PM in the first place. She was against Brexit. That made here not the right person to lead the Brexit negotiations. Someone who was in favour of Brexit should have been in the driver's seat.

Theresa May is still the leader of the largest party, but she lost het absolute majority and she certainly did not get the 50 or 100 extra seats in parliament that the she hoped and expected. I call that a loss. The usual response for such a loss is for the leader to resign. Sometimes immidiately, sometimes after a period of contemplation and pressure from the inner circle.

DR> There is no appetite for a leadership election in the Conservative
DR> party at the moment. Go back to the leadership election that took
DR> place after David Cameron resigned and you'll see what I mean.

There may be no appetite, but if Theresa May loses the support of her inner circle, her position will become untenable and she will have to resign anyway.

DR> Mrs. May has until the Queen's Speech (which contains the business the
DR> government intends to present to parliament in the next year) to
DR> convince parliament that she can continue. If she loses the vote on
DR> the Queen's Speech then she does have to resign.

That is just the next hurdle in case she survives that long.

DR> Although the election result turned on Theresa May's domestic policies
DR> as set out in the manifesto, there are many that feel that the Brexit
DR> negotiations will now benefit from Mrs. May's "wings having been
DR> clipped". She will now have to listen more to the advice of her
DR> colleagues and back-benchers.

Be that as it may be, what you and many others seem to forget is that the UK will not be the only one at the Brexit negiotiation table. On the other side will be the EU representing the 27 remaining states that all have wishes of their own. What the UK wants or does not want won't make much of a difference. It will be the EU that determines the agenda, not the UK.

DR> However, the agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (assuming
DR> there *is* an agreement - we shall see later today)

What I see is that there is no agreement if there is an agreement. Which means there is no agreement and I would not be surprised if at the end of the day there will still be no agreement.

DR> could be another ticking bomb. It's no secret that one of the DUP's
DR> demands will be more money invested in Northern Ireland. That will
DR> then lead to similar demands from Wales and Scotland.

There is that, but it is not just money. The DUP is extremely conservative. They are vehemently against abortion and same sex marriages. Plus that this arrangement will be a spark in the barrel of gun powder of the "Irish Issue" that is still lying around somewhere. The EU has acted as a band aid to quench such problems, but with the Republic of Ireland in the EU and the UK out of the EU, one can expect the "troubles" to play up again. The Tories making friends with the DUP certainly does not help...

DR> Isn't it interesting that Jeremy Corbyn, who, for two years has been
DR> pilloried as the most unsuccessful Labour Party leader ever and whom
DR> they have constantly tried to get rid of, is now hailed as the Labour
DR> Party's saviour?!  He did well in the election. That doesn't mean he
DR> would make a good prime minister.

The latter applies to all elected politicians. Winnig an election just means he/she is good at winning an election. No guarantee that he/she will be a good leader of the country. You have a better idea?


Cheers, Michiel

--- GoldED+/W32-MSVC 1.1.5-b20170303
* Origin: http://www.vlist.eu (2:280/5555)

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