= Сообщение: 8663 из 12491 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : David Rance 2:203/2 27 May 19 11:25:21 Кому : Michiel van der Vlist 27 May 19 11:25:21 Тема : Stop Brexit now (if possible)! FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+5cebad00 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5ceb16c1 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: ASCII ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5cef9db7 ============================================================================== On Mon, 27 May 2019 00:39:01 Michiel van der Vlist -> David Rance wrote:
DR>>> I believe that, now we know much more about the benefits of being in DR>>> the EU, if we hold another referendum the position will be very much DR>>> changed and that we would vote convincingly to stay in the EU.
MvdV> The last I heard is that Nigel Farage's Brexit Party got 31% of the UK MvdV> votes. Do you still believe that a new referendum would result in MvdV> "remain"?
Yes, it's still possible, but let's look at why I say that. The following is just for England and Wales.
The Brexit party was expected to do well because they have a single aim - just to "get on with it and stop messing about". It was a protest vote. UKIP did badly simply because they are trying to diversify in a right-wing sort of way. That's why Nigel Farage created the Brexit party and took most of the old UKIP voters with him as well as gathering a few more from the so-called main parties (Conservative and Labour).
The Conservatives, predictably, did badly and there's no need for me to explain that! Reports are that they got the smallest percentage of a national vote for nearly two hundred years. Labour also did badly because their message wasn't clear.
BUT .... now let's look at the rest of the vote. The Liberal Democrats did extraordinarily well, beating the Brexit party in London as well as some other regions. The Greens also did quite well. Both these parties are in favour of remaining in the EU. If we add their respective votes together we get:
Lib Dems 3366673 Greens 2010328
TOTAL 5377001
which alone is more than the Brexit party scored with 5244893
Change UK (the one I voted for) scored 571716 votes which wasn't very good, but that's still half a million more for remain. And UKIP also scored just under half a million. So if we add together the significant popular votes for and against Brexit, we have
Brexit 5244893 UKIP 549159
Total for Brexit 5794052
Lib Dems 3366673 Greens 2010328 Change UK 571716
Total for remain 5948717
That's just for England and Wales. If we add in Scotland which is strongly in favour of remaining, we have yet another 590947 votes, making a grand total of remain votes of 6539664.
The Total vote of all the nine biggest parties was 16354959. A very rough calculation (with a wide margin for error!) puts the Brexit popular vote at 35.5% and Remain at 40% with 24.5% voting for other parties who haven't really declared for either Brexit or Remain. And Northern Ireland hasn't yet started to count its votes but we can assume that they will favour Remain.
The popular vote is still very much split, so if we had another referendum things might well be different. I don't claim any scientific accuracy for the above but I think it does show that nothing is yet cut and dried!
David
-- Formerly ICHTHUS (Reading) UK (1987-2007 R.I.P.) (2:292/854.110)
