= Сообщение: 8824 из 12491 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : David Rance 2:203/2 04 Aug 19 18:30:34 Кому : Michiel van der Vlist 04 Aug 19 18:30:34 Тема : Every coin has two sides FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+5d470826 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5d469f28 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: ASCII ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5d476066 ============================================================================== On Sun, 4 Aug 2019 11:02:31 Michiel van der Vlist -> David Rance wrote:
MvdV> On Thursday August 01 2019 18:05, you wrote to me:
MvdV>>> You really thinks BJ /believes/ he can negotiate a "better" MvdV>>> deal with the EU? Does he really believe he can get the MvdV>>> backstop off the the table?
DR>> No, that's not what I said.
MvdV> I am sorry if I misunderstood. A "lost in translation" issue perhaps?
MvdV> This is what you wrote:
DR>> And he's not afraid of saying that we must prepare for a no deal DR>> Brexit, knowing that the EU don't really want this and will avoid it DR>> if at all possible. Whether this rhetoric pays off or not remains to DR>> be seen but he has always believed that a no deal will not be the DR>> disaster that so many believe. It would hurt the EU as well as us but DR>> will it hurt them enough to be willing to make any concessions?
MvdV> I was responding to the last part about the EU making concessions. From MvdV> that I gleened that he was trying to pressure the EU with the threat of MvdV> a no deal Brexit.
Start again - no, Boris doesn't necessarily *believe* that he can negotiate a better deal but he is making quite sure that the EU understands that he won't accept the present one. However he is leaving the door open for further negotiations if the EU changes its mind.
MvdV> SO what do they want? What does Boris Johnson want? Does he really MvdV> wants a hard Brexit?
Who knows?
MvdV> An interesting development is that BJ now has a majority for his MvdV> coalition of only ONE seat in the House. It just takes one dissident MvdV> for a vote of no confidence and forced general elections. Which due to MvdV> timing regulations can not be held before 31 October. Interesting...
The last thing that parliament wants at the moment is a general election. If it had wanted one sooner it could easily have won a vote of no confidence. But the fact is that all the members, whatever party they belong to, will not vote the present government out because no party can be sure of winning enough seats to form a government. Because of our political system our political parties don't like coalition governments. The Labour party, usually the next biggest, is deeply unpopular at the moment. No other party is strong enough to win a majority. And the results of by-elections are not indicative of what will happen in a general election simply because they are usually just protest votes. So no-one can be sure of what the outcome of a general election at the moment will be and so no-one will table a vote of no confidence or, if they do, there will be tactical voting to ensure that it fails.
Oh, and the result of the recent by-election was due entirely to tactical voting as several of the parties agreed not to field a candidate.
So the only way of *forcing* a general election at the moment is if Boris calls one.
David
-- Formerly ICHTHUS (Reading) UK (1987-2007 R.I.P.) (2:292/854.110)
