MvdV> There is another issue on which I'd like to hear your comment. What MvdV> about Scotland? And also maybe Northern Ireland. The majority of the MvdV> Scotttish people did not want to leave the EU. In the last referendum MvdV> they did not want to leave the UK either, but now there is a situation MvdV> where they can't have both. Nicola Sturgeon want a new referendum on MvdV> Scotland leaving the UK. How do you think this will evolve?
There will be a war of attrition. Nicola Sturgeon is a strong character (unlike the ex-leader of the LibDems). She is clear about what she wants. In some respects she is very much like Boris in that she is a popular figurehead for the Scottish people and she is not going to let this drop.
However, Boris has the whip hand because he can simply say that they've already had a referendum on independence in which the Scots voted to stay in the Union. They have to have his permission to hold another referendum and I don't think it likely that he will agree to that in the short term, at least until the fallout from Brexit has settled and probably not for at least five years.
When you think about it, if we should carry out the result of the referendum on Brexit, then the logic is that the Scottish independence referendum should also be obeyed. What's the difference? Boris has got logic on his side. But even more telling is the fact that, with an overall majority of eighty in the Commons, it isn't likely that Boris will ever have to do any deals with the SNP.
Northern Ireland? No idea where we're going with that. Maybe nowhere, but who can tell? Shall we see a united Ireland in our lifetime? Stranger things have happened!
But that's only my opinion. Who can tell who will blink first?
David
-- David Rance writing from Caversham, Reading, UK
