07 Apr 20 21:27, Michiel van der Vlist wrote to Gerrit Kuehn:
MvdV> Of course this is just a rough calculation based on simplifications MvdV> and wild assumptions. But it will give an impression on the order MvdV> of magnitude. It does not look good...
For Germany the numbers look better, I think. We could handle about 40000 new infections by day given the current hospilisation rate (at least for some time). We only see about 1/10 of that right now. Still, it would take us 3 years to reach 60% at that rate (and that would mean working in emergency mode, something you also could not do for a longer time) if there are no unreported cases. However, if the reported cases make only 10% of the real ones, this might look different. It might also be possible that certain population groups have a much lower risk of being in need for being hospitalised than others (or than average). We need to find out.
GK>> We need large-scale tests for immunity to tell. These will hopefully GK>> be available soon.
MvdV> Yes we do need test, especially tests that tell us how many MvdV> infections have been below the radar and how many are already MvdV> immune.
Exactly. And that was the original design flaw of the British way: There was (and still is) no data basis to properly estimate if it is feasible to go that way without risking health systems to implode.
GK>> Hardly possible, either (depending on what "semi" might actually be).
MvdV> Indeed hardly possible. Hoping the vaccin will be available before MvdV> that....
Not my strong suit, but my gut feeling would be: not before summer 2021.
