= Сообщение: 8699 из 12491 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 30 May 19 10:57:21 Кому : David Rance 30 May 19 10:57:21 Тема : Stop Brexit now (if possible)! FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5cef9db7 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+5cebad00 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== ============================================================================== Hello David,
On Monday May 27 2019 11:25, you wrote to me:
MvdV>> The last I heard is that Nigel Farage's Brexit Party got 31% of MvdV>> the UK votes. Do you still believe that a new referendum would MvdV>> result in "remain"?
DR> Yes, it's still possible, but let's look at why I say that. The DR> following is just for England and Wales.
DR> That's just for England and Wales. If we add in Scotland which is DR> strongly in favour of remaining, we have yet another 590947 votes, DR> making a grand total of remain votes of 6539664.
DR> The Total vote of all the nine biggest parties was 16354959. A very DR> rough calculation (with a wide margin for error!) puts the Brexit DR> popular vote at 35.5% and Remain at 40% with 24.5% voting for other DR> parties who haven't really declared for either Brexit or Remain.
So remain is in the majority.
DR> The popular vote is still very much split, so if we had another DR> referendum things might well be different. I don't claim any DR> scientific accuracy for the above but I think it does show that DR> nothing is yet cut and dried!
Indeed. So another referendun could very well end in remain.
The first hurdle is of course if there will be a referendum at a all. If Boris Johnson is the next PM, there probably won't. "If"... I understand he has to go to court for lying during the campaign. It may not do him much good. Then again, you never know in politics..
Then if there is a referendum a lot depends on how many and who go to the voting booth. Here in The Netherlands two anti EU parties ended up with zero seats in the EU perliament. Not because their constituency voted for something else but because they did not bother to vote at all.
The pro EU parties won because the majority of their voters actually voted.
