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Присутствуют сообщения из эхоконференции ENET.SYSOP с датами от 10 Jul 13 21:42:12 до 28 Apr 24 22:34:46, всего сообщений: 12491
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= Сообщение: 8966 из 12491 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP =
От   : Michiel van der Vlist            2:280/5555         04 Oct 19 23:56:00
Кому : David Rance                                         04 Oct 19 23:56:00
Тема : Brexit
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Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:292/854+0b354063
Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5da44030
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Hello David,

On Friday October 04 2019 15:23, you wrote to me:

MvdV>> I might work, but I doubt it will be acceptable for all parties
MvdV>> concerned. At least he tries.

DR> The EU are "considering" BJ's proposals but probably only because they
DR> don't want to be blamed for a no-deal Brexit. And BJ has submitted his
DR> proposals because *he* doesn't want to be blamed for a no-deal Brexit.

That may be the case. OTOH, it may be the opening for further negotiations. The EU has given signals that would indicate this isn't good enough as it does not satisfy the GFA, leaves holes in in the EU perepheral border and gives one party (Nothern Ireland) a one sided veto.

But.. they have not said "no" yet. So maybe, just maybe there is room for negotiaton.

DR> I honestly don't know where this gets us.

Neither do I.

DR> There may be enough support now from parliament for his proposals
DR> because a number of MPs, including the DUP, the expelled members of
DR> the Conservative party and some Labour MPs, are coming round to it.
DR> It's still a close-run thing, though.

Plus of course they don't want to take the blame for failure...

DR>  The Irish Taoiseach isn't happy.

So far the EU has shown to be loyal to its members. The ones that want to stay in that is. So if the Iish Republic says "no", that is the show stopper.

Although BJ's plan has merits, I don't think it is going to work. If only because time is running out.
https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown Says we have 27 days left, but that is for a deadline of 31 October. In fact the actual deadine is 11 Oct. That is the last day the agenda for the 17/18 October EU meeting is fixed. So we have less than a week. I don't think a deal can be negotiated in such a short time.

DR> There *seems* to be more movement now - but is it enough? Is it real
DR> movement?

I think it is real movement. BJ really prefers to leave with a deal. Is it enough? No, it is not enough. Nobody wants a border between Ulster and the Republic. What BJ proposes is half a border.

DR>  Or is each side waiting for the other to blink first?

Maybe this is a game of chicken, or maybe it is not. But the basic problem remains. The EU does not want holes in it periphery. So if the UK is out and the Republic of Ireland stays in, there has to be a border. Somewhere. So a choice will have to be made....

Cheers, Michiel

... 27 days, 0 hours, 46 minutes and counting...
--- GoldED+/W32-MSVC 1.1.5-b20170303
* Origin: http://www.vlist.eu (2:280/5555)

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