= Сообщение: 9175 из 12492 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 24 Dec 19 00:33:57 Кому : David Rance 24 Dec 19 00:33:57 Тема : Brexit FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5e015b5c На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+5dff898c = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:203/2+5e01f00a ============================================================================== Hello David,
On Sunday December 22 2019 16:19, you wrote to me:
MvdV>> Now what? It will have to be approved by the House of Lords as MvdV>> well. Do you see any problems there?
DR> No, I don't. Even if the Upper House were to reject it (very unlikely) DR> it would then come back to the Commons, they would debate it and then DR> send it up to the Lords again. This could happen two or three times DR> but then the Commons would push it through for Royal Assent anyway. DR> You see, the powers of the Lords are strictly limited. In reality, all DR> they can do is advise the government but, in the last resort, they no DR> longer have the power to block a bill, only delay it.
Ah, I did not know that the house of Lords does not have any real power. Here it is different. The "1st kamer" or senate has some real power. They have the power to veto. If they say "no" it goes back to parliament for review.Pparliament can send an anamanded version to the senate and again they can aprove or veto it. But the senate can not be ignored. "no" means "no".
MvdV>> Will the UK leave on 31 Jan?
DR> As far as we can see into the future, yes. But little will happen DR> immediately except that the MEPs will no longer be MEPs and the DR> British PM will no longer be able to sit round the table with the DR> other twenty-seven PMs.
It marks a point of "no return". By ruling of the European Court, the UK could unilaterally retract art. 50 and call the whole thing off. Under Therasa May, this was a possible option, but now with Boris Johnson's absolute majority this is just theory. But still, after 31 jan, there is no going back.
DR> We shall continue to follow the EU regulations until 31st December DR> 2020, by which time a trade agreement should be thrashed out. If it DR> isn't then we leave without a deal. Boris will enshrine 31-12-20 in DR> law so that it cannot be extended. But, judging by past events, that DR> may not mean much!
Indeed. Making predictions is difficult, especially if it concerns the future. If BJ gets his way, the transition period will end 31 dec 2020, but we may be in for another surprise...
DR> I must confess to getting the mood of the country completely wrong, if DR> the outcome of the general election is anything to go by. There could DR> be any number of reasons why BJ got such a big majority:
I think there is one thing we can say with some certainty. Three years ago those who voted for leave may have had no idea what they voted for. This time those who voted for Johnson to "get Brexit done" no longer had that excuse. They had ample time to get informed. If they voted for "get Brexit done" they knew what they voted for.
DR> 1. More people were actually in favour of Brexit than we thought.
It is surely not the only reason, but what I glean from other channels I think that there is indeed a substantial fraction of the UK people that wants a Brexit. Even if it hurts the economy. No matter how misguided, no matter what the cost, they want "to take back control". We see that here too, but here it is a small minority.
DR> 2. Those who didn't believe in Brexit just wanted to get things over DR> and done with because they were sick and tired with all the delay.
Yes, there is that. People want to get it done and move on...
DR> 3. The Labour party suffered from the poorest leadership for many DR> years and their spending plans for the next parliament just weren't DR> credible. They suffered a protest vote from those who lived in the DR> Labour heartland and had never voted Conservative before. That, I DR> think, was the biggest factor.
I think Labour's big mistake was to not take a stance on Brexit. They wanted to keep both remain and leave aboard, but instead they lost many of both. Nobody wants a leader that won't tell the followers which direction to go.
DR> 4. The Liberal Democrats had an inexperienced and somewhat naive DR> leader who angered a great many of her supporters by saying that she DR> would annul the result of the referendum of 2016. She lost her seat!
This is one of the oddities of the "first past he post, winner takes all, UK district system". Here with the "one man one vote" system it could never happen that the leader of a party loses the seat unless he/she gets less than 1/150 (150 being the number of sets in parliament) of the popular vote. The UK district system heavely favours the main parties.
DR> 5. (and this is the dangerous one) Boris is an orator, the like of DR> which we haven't seen since Winston Churchill. I don't say that BJ is DR> in the same league, oratorially speaking, as WC but he does have the DR> ability to make people feel good.
There is that. But thers is no denying that his simple three word strategy of "get Brexit done" appealed to the voters.
DR> Boris has acknowledged publicly that he knows that he got a lot of DR> votes from Labour supporters and has said that they have "lent him DR> their votes", thereby admitting that, in the next general election, DR> they will return to their first loyalty.
Sure, But fo now he got their votes and the mandate. next election is next election...
DR> But at least he knows that he has to address their needs (the National DR> Health Service, education, housing, and the plight of the poorest DR> section of society) in the next five years, needs which the Labour DR> party themselves seem to have forgotten with all their infighting. DR> Even Tony Blair's old constituency returned a Conservative this time DR> and Boris has visited them along with many of the other die-hard DR> Labour constituencies that turned blue to thank them personally.
Remarkable indeed.
There is another issue on which I'd like to hear your comment. What about Scotland? And also maybe Northern Ireland. The majority of the Scotttish people did not want to leave the EU. In the last referendum they did not want to leave the UK either, but now there is a situation where they can't have both. Nicola Sturgeon want a new referendum on Scotland leaving the UK. How do you think this will evolve?
DR> Well, that's how I've summarised the result of the election in my own DR> mind. But others may interpret things differently.
