= Сообщение: 9513 из 12490 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 07 Apr 20 21:27:54 Кому : Gerrit Kuehn 07 Apr 20 21:27:54 Тема : Johnson and COVID-19 FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5e8cd43c На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:240/12+5e37ed9f = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:240/12+5e37eda1 ============================================================================== Hello Gerrit,
On Tuesday April 07 2020 16:56, you wrote to me:
MvdV>> coverage fo flock immunity is 60%. Without overloading the MvdV>> health system it will probably take two to three years to reach MvdV>> that nummber.
GK> Nobody knows as nobody knows how many immune (formerly infected) GK> people there already are. Thus we don't know how large the number of GK> people who need to be hospitalised actually will be.
True, we do not know how many infected people remain below the radar. But we can make some calculations based on assumptions.
These are the figures for The Netherlands. We seem to have reached the situation that the Reproduction factor hovers around 1. So we have linair growth instead of exponential growth.
We have a total of 19000 registered infections of which 7400 have been hospitalised. So about a third. A little over 300 people are hospitalised every day. This is near the maximum we can handle. So under the assumption that the percentage below the radar is zero, the number of infections increases by 1000/day. The Netherlands has 17,5 M inhabitants, so to reach 60%, ( say 10 Million) we need another 10.000 days or 27 years,
Now assume that only one out of ten infections is recognised as such and registered. The we still need about 2,5 years to reach flock immunity.
Of course this is just a rough calculation based on simplifications and wild assumptions. But it will give an impression on the order of magnitude. It does not look good...
GK> We need large-scale tests for immunity to tell. These will hopefully GK> be available soon.
Yes we do need test, especially tests that tell us how many infections have been below the radar and how many are already immune.
MvdV>> Keeping the country in semi lockdown for two to three MvdV>> years?
GK> Hardly possible, either (depending on what "semi" might actually be).
Indeed hardly possible. Hoping the vaccin will be available before that....
