= Сообщение: 9519 из 12490 ====================================== ENET.SYSOP = От : Michiel van der Vlist 2:280/5555 08 Apr 20 12:59:31 Кому : Gerrit Kuehn 08 Apr 20 12:59:31 Тема : Johnson and COVID-19 FGHI : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:280/5555+5e8db0d0 На : area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:240/12+5e37eda1 = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP850 ================================== Ответ: area://ENET.SYSOP?msgid=2:240/12+5e37eda3 ============================================================================== Hello Gerrit,
On Tuesday April 07 2020 22:07, you wrote to me:
MvdV>> Of course this is just a rough calculation based on MvdV>> simplifications and wild assumptions. But it will give an MvdV>> impression on the order of magnitude. It does not look good...
GK> For Germany the numbers look better, I think.
There is a significant difference between Germany and The Netherlands, you have far greater IC capacity. We have 7 IC beds per 100.000 inhabitants, you have 34.
GK> We could handle about 40000 new infections by day given the current GK> hospilisation rate (at least for some time). We only see about 1/10 of GK> that right now. Still, it would take us 3 years to reach 60% at that GK> rate (and that would mean working in emergency mode,
We ARE in emergency mode. IC capacity has been scaled up a factor two by canabalising beds, staff and equipment meant for other non urgent care like hip surgery and such. IC wards look like we are at war.
About 100 Dutch IC patients were moved to Germany.
GK> something you also could not do for a longer time)
Indeed. Regular care has been scaled down in favour of creating capacity for Corona patients. But this can not go on forever, "non urgent" regular care can only be postponed for so long...
GK> if there are no unreported cases. However, if the reported cases make GK> only 10% of the real ones, this might look different. It might also be GK> possible that certain population groups have a much lower risk of GK> being in need for being hospitalised than others (or than average). We GK> need to find out.
Indeed, we are just guessing. We need data. But gathering data takes time...
GK>>> We need large-scale tests for immunity to tell. These will GK>>> hopefully be available soon.
MvdV>> Yes we do need test, especially tests that tell us how many MvdV>> infections have been below the radar and how many are already MvdV>> immune.
GK> Exactly. And that was the original design flaw of the British way:
On the first week, we had people advocating flock immunity too. Until they started doing the math, like I did in my previous message. Now you don't hear anyone advocating flock immunity here any more. For now...
GK> There was (and still is) no data basis to properly estimate if it is GK> feasible to go that way without risking health systems to implode.
And there won't be for soem time. In the meantime we have to keep 1.5 meter distance and stay home when we can...
GK>>> Hardly possible, either (depending on what "semi" might actually GK>>> be).
Restaurants and barber shops are closed. All events are cancelled. But contrary to you guys, we may go out in the open to do shopping or just take a walk. Under the 1.5 meter distance condition. And wash hands every ten minutes...
MvdV>> Indeed hardly possible. Hoping the vaccin will be available MvdV>> before that....
GK> Not my strong suit, but my gut feeling would be: not before summer GK> 2021.
I am a bit more optimistic. Just a gut feeling too, but I have reasonable hope we will have something usable by Xmas.
