= Сообщение: 1440 из 2391 ================================ RU.FIDONET.DIGEST = От : Vladimir Fyodorov 2:6035/3.1 30 Dec 19 18:28:02 Кому : All 30 Dec 19 18:28:02 Тема : FIDONEWS: Ежегодная статистка по IPv6-узлам FGHI : area://RU.FIDONET.DIGEST?msgid=2:6035/3.1+5e0a193e = Кодировка сообщения определена как: CP866 ================================== ==============================================================================
> Michiel van der Vlist собрал и опубликовал статистику по количеству > IPv6-узлов в Фидо как в целом, так и с разбивкой по регионам и зонам. > Общее количество таких узлов увеличивается ежегодно, и за последний год > возросло с 78 до 86 (почти 10% от общего количества нод).
============================================================================= * Area : FIDONEWS * From : FidoNews Robot, 2:2/2 (30 Декабря 2019 01:31) * Subj : FidoNews 36:52 [01/07]: General Articles ============================================================================= ================================================================= GENERAL ARTICLES =================================================================
IPv6 in 2019 By Michiel van der Vlist, 2:280/5555
Another year has passed. When we compare the statistics as published by the end of 2018 with those of today, we see that IPv6 in Fidonet has grown again. From 78 to 86 nodes.
Not just another year has passed, but also another decade. (Except for the nitpckers that insist the decade runs from 2011-2021.)
When we look at the past decade we see that IPv6 in Fidonet grew from zero to almost a hundred . Nearly 10% of the listed Fido nodes. The growth went from exponential in the first five years to almost lineair since 2015. Until the end of 2015, the number almost doubled every year. In 2016 we had a mere net increase of 12 nodes. I say "net" because in 2016, not only did we see new IPv6 nodes, we also saw nodes disappear from the list. Some stopped supporting IPv6, some left Fidonet altogether. This trend continued in 2017, 2018 and 2019. A net increase of 13 nodes in 2017, 14 in 2018 and 8 in 2019.
Statistics on small numbers is alway tricky, but we can not deny the impression that sinds last year the rate of inrease appears to be dropping. In the first half of 2019 the number even dropped to 71 because several IPv6 nodes left Fidonet. At the end it reached 86.
Other than that, 2019 was not all that eventfull regarding IPv6. Not for Fidonet en not for the Internet in general. We saw steady growth but we can't say that IPv6 is the dominant protocol yet. Two things are worth mentioning:
What we have been expecting for some time, but did not see before is a Fidonet system that no longer has a public IPv4 address because his provider gave him a DS-Lite connection. Node 2:5020/2038 could not accept incoming IPv4 calls for some month. Incoming was IPv6 only. Later he moved his node from his home to his office where he now is on an IPv4 only connection.
Several mobile providers in Europe have started to roll out IPv6 or have announced that they will do so in the coming year. The mobile providers will not use DS-Lite, but the effect will be the same. The user will have a block of IPv6 addresses and an IPv4 address in the RFC 1918 or RFC 6598 range. That the mobile users will not have a public IPv4 address is no big deal for them, most of them had to make do with CGNAT for many years already. The mobile network is IPv6 only. To access IPv4 only servers they will make use of NAT64. One of the reasons that the mobile providers waited so long is that they had to wait for older versions of Android and iOS that do not support NAT64 to fade out. (Or so they claim). Anyway, mobile IPv6 may be the game changer that makes IPv6 the dominant protocol.
This makes it even more clear that some do better than others. ;-)
IPv4 address exhaustion not only makes IPv6 unavoidable, it also makes it unavoidable that at least part of the internet community will have to make do with a DS-Lite connection and so no longer has a public IPv4 address. The trend that providers, mostly in Europe and Australasia, are switching to DS-lite continues. Some providers only put new customers on DS-Lite and allow existing customers to keep their public IPv4 address, others move existing customers to DS-Lite as well. It has not affected Fidonet yet, but I expect that to be a matter of time. DS-Lite is unavoidable and it will affect Fidonet. If not next year, then surely in the years to come.
Fidonet will survive the exhaustion of IPv4 addresses. But only for those that move to IPv6. Unfortunately like in the Big Bad World there are people that are in denial regarding global warming, there is a non negligible fraction of Fidonet sysops that are in denial regarding IPv6. They seem to think that it is just a conspiracy to extract more money from the cutomers, a hoax or a hype that will blow over.
Well, it ain't. IPv4 address exhaustion is real and IPv6 is unavoidable. Those that remain in denial will eventually be left behind. It may take a while, maybe another decade, but running a Fidonet node on an IPv4 only connection will eventually lead to isolation. IPv6 is a must, not an option.
In order not to have to tell the same story over and over again, I sometimes refer people to Fidonews articles I wrote in the past. Since there seems to be no easely available searcheable archive, I made a list of these articles. I hope I did not miss any.
My previous Fidonews articles about IPv6:
FN 26:31 Jul 2009 FidoNet and IPv6 FN 28:04 Jan 2011 FidoNet and IPv4 depletion FN 28:07 Feb 2011 Fido and IPv6 Day FN 28:16 Apr 2011 APNIC runs out FN 28:20 May 2011 The IPv6 echo FN 28:31 Aug 2011 A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS Part 1 FN 28:32 Aug 2011 A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS PArt 2 FN 28:45 Nov 2011 A "first" FN 29:04 Jan 2012 World IPv6 Launch Day, 6 June 2012 FN 29:09 Feb 2012 A SECOND LIFE FOR THE LINKSYS Part 3 FN 29:38 Sep 2012 RIPE is out of IPv4 addresses. FN 32:17 Apr 2015 IPv6 penetration in the nodelist FN 32:26 Jun 2015 ARIN is out of IPv4 addresses. FN 3:252 Dec 2015 IPv6 in Fidonet by the end of 2015 FN 33:02 Jan 2016 IPv6 in two thousand SIX teen FN 33:06 Feb 2016 Another barrier broken. FN 34:01 Jan 2017 IPv6 in 2016 FN 34:13 Mar 2017 SixXs Sunset 06-06-2017 FN 34:30 Jul 2017 TV without IPv6 FN 34:31 Jul 2017 DS-Lite emulation experiment v2.0 FN 34:37 Sep 2017 DS-Lite emulation experiment 2.0, the results FN 34:33 Aug 2017 DS-Lite: a solution FN 34:38 Sep 2017 DS-Lite Emulation experiment v2.1 FN 35:01 Jan 2018 IPv6 in 2017 FN 35:53 Dec 2018 IPv6 in 2018
Happy IPv6 in 2020. =============================================================================
--- GoldED+/W64-MSVC 1.1.5-b20170303 * Origin: Esquire Station (2:6035/3.1)
